Reddit user coffeeshopgeorge has worked out all of the permutations of how each of Wales, Australia and England can make it out of Pool A…
So everyone is talking about how England are out of the world cup if they lose to Australia on the weekend, however that’s not entirely true. England’s fortunes also very much depend on the result of the Wales vs Fiji game on Thursday. The potential outcomes are pretty fascinating…
Australia & Wales are currently on top of the pool with 9 points each.
England are 3rd on 6 points, but are yet to play Uruguay, so its safe to assume a bonus point victory there will take them to at least 11 points.
Scenario 1: Aus d England, Wales d Fiji
England are pretty much boned in this situation. Even if they take maximum bonus points from the loss to Australia, Wales would still go through in the event of a tie. The Aus vs Wales game becomes a playoff for 1st & 2nd.
Aus d England, Fiji d Wales
Fiji can do the English a huge favour by pulling off a minor upset over Wales. With the Welsh injury list the way it is, this is not out of the realms of possibility – Fiji have looked sharp against Australia & England.
In this scenario, Australia secures a place in the top 2 but from there its down to bonus points… If the Welsh go on to beat Australia they probably top the pool with Australia second, though bonus points could easily change that order. If Australia beat Wales, they go through undefeated and 2nd place comes down to bonus points. There’s a good change the England v Aus game will be close, so even in this scenario England probably finish on 12 points. You can bet England would run a decent side against Uruguay and put plenty of points on them, so they probably also finish with a better for & against than Wales. The Welsh therefore would need to secure all 4 bonus points to advance.
Scenario 3 – England d Aus, Wales d Fiji
Australia could find themselves under huge pressure with a loss on Saturday, fighting for survival against Wales. This is where it gets interesting….
There are a lot of different outcomes depending on bonus points, but its possible (although unlikely) that all three teams find themselves finishing the Pool stage on 15 points with for & against deciding who goes through. Wales could be in trouble here too if England manage to put 60 odd points on Uruguay.
There’s still a lot of different ways this pool can go with bonus points likely to play a big part. I hope the Wallabies don’t end up regretting not going for that 4th try against Fiji…
You can follow the full debate here.